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There was a time, almost 10 years ago, when it was my job to follow Michael Phelps around the country -- and around the world -- documenting his every move. I studied his facial expressions, scribbled down his splits during every race and frequently lingered on the pool deck for more than an hour after his races were over, hoping he would eventually wander over and share a few snippets of insight that I could relay to readers.I felt like I knew him then, as well as anyone who covered swimming, which was also to say, barely at all.Writing about him as he grew up in the public eye, stumbles and all, was complicated. What he did in the pool, on his best nights, was surreal. I frequently sat down in front of my laptop after watching him break a world record and felt like no words in my head could do it justice. He pushed the limits of human potential, and to witness that, again and again, was one of the great blessings of my career.He also often seemed more like a corporation than a person. He lived in a bubble, a bubble he both needed and resented. He rarely looked people in the eye when he answered questions. He rarely spoke frankly about anything. For promotional purposes, he decided that he needed to be bland and polite every time the cameras were on. When they were off, he could be surly, indifferent and immature. Other than his coach, Bob Bowman, he didnt have many people in his life who could be brutally honest with him, and it showed. (I once asked Bowman if he felt like a father figure in Phelps life, considering Phelps went months and years without speaking to his father, Fred. Bowman explained that their relationship was far more complicated than that.)Phelps was trying to figure out who he was -- like so many of us as we transition from our teens to our 20s -- but he had to do it with the world watching. At times, that was suffocating. He shared the same anecdotes, over and over, that he thought were symbolic of his growth.?Once you heard them a few times, you understood that he was essentially reading a script people wanted to hear.I was the hometown newspaper reporter assigned to shadow him in the years leading up to Beijing, and though we got along fairly well, we grew weary of seeing one anothers faces. I once flew across the country to hang out with him before an award show, lured by the promise of an hour-long one-on-one interview, only to have it end after four minutes. I looked at my digital recorder in horror as he was whisked away by his handlers. There were no apologies. Phelps made it clear, in that moment and many others, who held all the power in our dynamic.Greatness requires a certain amount of selfishness. I understood that and never held it against him. The reality of who he was and who he is now has always been more complicated than most people understand. I watched him treat people poorly, listened to other swimmers gripe about him in private and mulled over how much any of it mattered. (Some of the complaints were jealousy; some were legitimate.) As Walt Whitman said, we all contain multitudes. I also saw Phelps act friendly, generous and human.This was especially true with kids. He had a bottomless supply of patience at swim meets for all the kids who wanted pictures, autographs, hugs or high-fives. A lot of interactions with people, he tolerated or?faked. With kids, it always seemed genuine. It was as if he knew, on a subconscious level, that his own childhood had been given away in exchange for his sports destiny, and when he saw kids just learning how to swim the butterfly, he longed for that innocence. One of the first times I thought he was genuinely curious about my life was after my daughter was born in 2009. I mentioned it in passing, little more than small talk, and he wanted to hear more. He urged me to enroll her in swim lessons as soon as possible.I thought about all of this on Saturday while watching Phelps win gold in the 4x100-meter medley relay, the race he insists will be his last. Sports narratives are always cleaner than reality. Its easy to say he has found peace, that hes sober, that hes content leaving the sport the right way. I so want this to be true, because if it is, its a hopeful story. Its a much better ending than seeing him get another DUI at 4 a.m. or watching him gamble, all alone, at the local casino because hes still struggling for a purpose outside the pool. With Olympians, we frequently make the mistake of trying to cast them as reflections of our best selves. That only magnifies their mistakes when they make them, as if theyve let the whole country down. Its unfair, but that arrangement seems to be inescapable.I dont know how Phelps will handle retirement. I didnt think he was finished after London, despite his insistence that it was over, but I do think its over now. Countless obstacles exist, however, just beyond the horizon. I hope he finds something else to chase, something to fulfill him.It might be family. It warmed my heart to see Phelps and his fiancée, Nicole Johnson, holding their son, Boomer, in Rio this week. I once asked him about Nicole, who was an off-and-on presence in his life even prior to Beijing. In a rare moment of candor, without using her name, he said any girl who required anything of him beyond the bare minimum wasnt going to last in his life. He was the person he wanted to be, he had goals he was going to pursue, and he saw no need to change. It was an interesting window into a 23-year-olds view of love and relationships. To see him now, striving to be an equal partner and parent while juggling one last athletic challenge, is a beautiful coda to his swimming career.Now, he likely faces the biggest challenge of his life. He has to figure out who he is and what hes capable of without the water. I think hell succeed, but maturity and sobriety are an endless journey, a fidelity to an idea, not a finish line you cross and never struggle with again. Every four years, Phelps gave us some incredible memories, and while there were certainly rewards, he also paid a price along the way.Root for the second act of his life to be just as rewarding as the first. 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Since that loss, the Niners have gone through three head coaches while posting a 13-19 record.At the end of the 2013 season, though, a new rival began to peek through the clouds. The Arizona Cardinals hired Bruce Arians, traded for Carson Palmer and narrowly missed out on the playoffs with a 10-6 season. That run included a rare 17-10 defeat of the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 16. The Seahawks swept a Palmer-less Cardinals team in 2014, but with Palmer recovered from a torn ACL, the Cardinals roared to the top of the NFC West in 2015. Arizona went 13-3, including a 39-32 comeback win over Seattle in the Pacific Northwest, before things went south at the very end of the year. The Cardinals were blown out by the Seahawks in Week 17, only for the NFC champion Panthers to destroy both the Seahawks and Cardinals in consecutive weeks in the postseason.Now, as we enter 2016, the Cardinals and Seahawks rank among the favorites to win Super Bowl LI. The biggest obstacle in their way, unfortunately, is each other. The easiest path to the Super Bowl, as last year reminded us, is with home-field advantage along the way, and its always going to be more difficult for a team like the Cardinals to finish with the conferences best record when they have to play twice against a team as good as Seattle. The Panthers were excellent last year, but they finished behind Arizona and Seattle in DVOA and faced the leagues easiest schedule. The second-place team in the Panthers division was the 8-8 Falcons. It might not surprise you to remember that the Panthers went 5-1 against the NFC South and outscored their brethren by 81 points in those games.Seattle and Arizona have it rough. But how rough? How often do teams as good as the 2015 Cardinals and Seahawks end up in the same division? And, with the expectation that both teams will again be among the leagues best in 2016, how does the presence of such talented competition nearby impact each teams respective Super Bowl chances?History Says...It would be great if we had an advanced metric like DVOA dating back to the beginning of time, but unfortunately, it runs back only through 1989. Our best simple measure of team performance, one that predicts future performance better than win-loss record itself, is point differential. To try to find teams and divisional races similar to the one Arizona and Seattle fought last year, I went back and ranked each team in each given year by point differential.Then, I took the top two teams in each division going back to the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 and found what the average of their point-differential rankings was to get an estimate of their skill levels. Even I can admit that sentence was no fun, but it gives us a good idea of how great the teams at the top of each division were. This sort of methodology confirms that the Seahawks-Cardinals race in the NFC West last year was one of the toughest in modern league history. The Cardinals ?(+176)? ranked second in point differential, and the Seahawks (+146) were just behind them in fourth. Their average ranking, then, was third. (For AFC North fans, the Bengals and Steelers were fifth and seventh, respectively.)Thats just about as tough as it gets. There are 17 other times since 1970 in which the top two teams in a division have had an average point differential of three, most recently the 2013 race between these same Seahawks and 49ers. The Seahawks finished that year by winning their first Super Bowl, but they were the exception to the rule: Of those 34 teams, each among the four best in football in their respective years, five won the Super Bowl.Five races in league history have involved even tougher competition, including three 1-2 divisional punches that included the two best teams in football by point differential. Lets run through those five races chronologically in advance of the possibility that Arizona and Seattle might join them in 2016:1997 AFC WestKansas City Chiefs?(13-3, +143 point differential, second in league) and?Denver Broncos?(12-4, +185 point differential, best in league)This was a matchup, by point differential, of the two best teams in the league. Only the Packers (+140) and arguably the 49ers (+110) were in the same ballpark as the Broncos and Chiefs; nobody else in the league had a point differential better than +80. These two teams split their season series, with the Chiefs eventually winning the division by virtue of a narrow victory over the BBroncos at home when Pete Stoyanovich hit a 54-yard field goal as time expired.dddddddddddd Ironically, the Chiefs special teams collapsed in horrific fashion during a playoff loss to the Broncos, who went on to beat the Packers and claim the first of their back-to-back Super Bowls.1992 NFC WestSan Francisco 49ers?(14-2, +195 point differential, best in league) and?New Orleans Saints?(12-4, +128 point differential, third in league)This matchup of Nos. 1?and 3?wasnt quite as meaningful of a rivalry as the one between the Chiefs and Broncos. The Saints had the leagues top-ranked defense, a fact that seems ancient given their defenses in recent years, and they played the Niners tough but lost both their games against San Francisco after winning the division the previous year, when the 49ers started Steve Bono at QB for six games. (To be fair, Bono went 5-1.) The 49ers were about to kick off their rivalry with the newly dominant Cowboys, who posted the leagues second-best point differential at +166. Dallas beat San Francisco 30-20 in the NFC Championship Game, the first meaningful Cowboys-49ers matchup of the Jimmy Johnson era, and then promptly dispatched the Bills in the Super Bowl by 35 points. The Saints were beaten 36-20 at home by the Eagles in the wild-card round and didnt post another winning record until the 2000 season.1987 NFC WestSan Francisco 49ers?(13-2, +206 point differential, best in league) and?New Orleans Saints?(12-3, +139 point differential, third in league)Theyre back! This was the year when Jerry Rice scored 22 touchdowns in 12 games and somehow didnt win league MVP (on the AP ballot), which went to John Elway instead. Again, the 49ers arguably had another larger rivalry brewing in the Northeast. This time, it was against the Giants, who had knocked the 49ers out of the playoffs in the two preceding postseasons. The Saints held their own, though: They handed the 49ers one of their two regular-season losses, knocking Steve Young out of the game with a concussion before seeing Morten Andersen atone for a missed field goal?that would have beaten the 49ers earlier in the year by hitting a game-winning 40-yarder. The competition didnt help either team, and both lost their opening playoff games.1980 NFC EastPhiladelphia Eagles?(12-4, +162 point differential, best in league) and?Dallas Cowboys?(12-4, +143 point differential, second in league)There is little arguing that Cowboys-Eagles was, and is, a long-standing rivalry, of course. This specific matchup was a weird one: The Eagles had been in second place behind the Cowboys in the each of the previous two seasons under Dick Vermeil, with a Week 15 loss to Dallas in 1979 handing the Cowboys the NFC East that year, but this wasnt the same Cowboys team. Roger Staubach retired after 1979, turning things over to Danny White, but the Cowboys didnt skip much of a beat. The Eagles instead improved, beating the Cowboys before losing the rematch in Week 17 after the division had already been decided. Philly won the deciding third game in the playoffs, beating Dallas 20-7 in a game played in temperatures as low as minus-17 degrees, only to lose to Oakland (+58 point differential) in the Super Bowl. The Eagles wouldnt win another playoff game until 1992.1970 NFC CentralMinnesota Vikings?(12-2, +192 point differential, best in league) and?Detroit Lions?(10-4, +145 point differential, second in league)The most impressive pair of teams in one divisional race, coincidentally, came in the leagues very first post-merger season. The Lions had a point differential 22 points better than that of the third-place Rams, and nobody else was in triple digits. Detroit also faced a far tougher schedule than Minnesota, so theres a good chance the Lions were every bit as good as the first-place Vikings. In all fairness, the Vikings handled their business against the Lions in the regular season, winning two games against Detroit in a three-week stretch during early November. (One of Detroits two other losses came on Tom Dempseys then-record 63-yard field goal.)Neither team could turn its regular-season play into postseason success, though. The Vikings turned the ball over five times during a 17-14 loss to the 49ers, and the Lions suffered an even more ignominious defeat: They lost to the Cowboys in the first of two 5-0 games in league history.Thats a bit of a concern if youre a fan of todays Cardinals or Seahawks. Theres not a big enough sample to say anything definitive, but at the very least, the anecdotal evidence doesnt seem to suggest that the sharper competition hones teams for success in the postseason. Rivalries are fun, and the games between the Cardinals and Seahawks will be highlights of the regular season, but both teams would probably be better off with a less impactful team looming in the West on the way to January. ' ' '